留学资讯 克里的东亚之行

John Kerry might well be wondering what he has let himself in for. Half way through a ten-day global trip that has immersed him in the Arab-Israeli peace process and Syria’s civil war, today the new US secretary of state flies into the middle of the latest North Korea crisis.

约翰•克里(John Kerry)现在很可能在想，自己到底惹下了什么麻烦。他为期十天的全球出访行程已经过半，迄今为止主要用于推进阿以和平进程和处理叙利亚内战问题。今天，这位美国新任国务卿将飞往最新这场朝鲜危机的中心。

Making his first visit to Asia since taking office, Mr Kerry will travel to Seoul, Beijing and Tokyo at the very time North Korea could test its new medium-range ballistic missiles in what is widely believed to be an attempt to force new concessions or aid from the international community.

这是克里履任以来首次访问亚洲。在朝鲜可能试射新型中程弹道导弹之际，克里将访问首尔、北京和东京。人们普遍认为，朝鲜此举是为了迫使国际社会做出进一步妥协或者提供进一步援助。

In a trip that will set the tone for the international response to the latest threats from North Korea, Mr Kerry’s objective will be to resist pressure from Pyongyang and provide continued reassurance to America’s South Korean and Japanese allies, while also cajoling China into putting more pressure on its North Korean ally.

克里此行将为国际社会如何回应朝鲜的最新威胁定下基调。他的目标将是：顶住来自朝鲜的压力，再一次给韩国和日本两个盟友吃定心丸，同时诱使中国向其盟友朝鲜加大施压。

The new round of pledges from Pyongyang to create a “sea of fire” follow a familiar pattern, but US officials admit the crisis on the Korean peninsula is unusually tense because so little is known about the intentions of North Korea’s new leader, Kim Jong-eun.

朝鲜最近多次放言要制造“一片火海”，这是它的惯用招数。但美国官员承认，如今朝鲜半岛危机局势之所以异乎寻常地紧张，是因为人们对朝鲜新领导人金正恩(Kim Jong-eun)的真实意图知之甚少。

“His primary objective is to consolidate his power ?.?.?.?he is trying to show that he is in control,” said James Clapper, director of national intelligence, yesterday. Mr Kim did not appear to have an objective other than getting acceptance “from the world, and specifically the US, of North Korea’s arrival as a nuclear power, which would entitle him to recognition and accommodation and aid”.

美国国家情报总监詹姆斯?克拉珀(James Clapper)表示：“他的主要目标是巩固权力……他正试图显示局势在自己的掌控之中。”金正恩的目的似乎不外乎是，让“全世界、尤其是美国”，接受“朝鲜已拥有核打击能力的现实，从而获得认可、接纳和帮助。”

Yet while North Korea has won concessions after previous episodes of bluster, the lack of willingness to give ground this time was underlined by yesterday’s G8 summit which included a statement condemning “in the strongest possible terms” North Korea’s nuclear programme and threats by ministers to impose new sanctions if the new missile test goes ahead.

尽管朝鲜之前的数次恐吓都曾成功迫使国际社会让步，但昨日的八国集团(G8)峰会凸显出国际社会此次不愿妥协的态度。峰会发表了一份声明，“用最严厉的措辞”谴责了朝鲜的核计划;与会的各国部长还威胁称，如果朝鲜继续试射导弹，将对其采取进一步制裁措施。 “There is no disagreement with the United States over North Korea,” said Sergei Lavrov, Russian foreign minister, on Wednesday.

俄罗斯外长谢尔盖?拉夫罗夫(Sergei Lavrov)周三表示：“我们在朝鲜问题上与美国没有分歧。”

Joseph DeTrani, former US special envoy for North Korea, said: “Pyongyang believes we will blink, that if they threaten enough and intimidate enough, we will give them something in return. But I don’t think anyone is prepared to do that any longer – no one wants to cave in.”

前美国朝鲜特使约瑟夫?狄长礼(Joseph DeTrani)表示：“平壤方面认为，我们会避免冲突。他们认为，如果把威胁和恐吓的功夫做足，我们将会给他们一些好处。但我认为，谁也不打算继续这么做了——没有人愿意屈服。”

The united international response to North Korea’s threats puts further pressure on China, which has publicly shown its displeasure at the recent escalation in rhetoric, providing Mr Kerry an opening during his talks in Beijing tomorrow. The US and other Asian governments want China to take further steps against North Korea, including restricting some trade and closing down bank accounts.

国际社会对朝鲜威胁的联合回应，对中国造成了更大的压力。随着国际社会最近对朝鲜的措辞日趋严厉，中国已公开表示对朝鲜的不满，这为克里明日在北京的会谈提供了机遇。美国及其他亚洲国家希望中国采取进一步措施压制朝鲜，包括限制部分贸易、以及关闭一些银行账户。

Kurt Campbell, until recently the assistant secretary of state for East Asia, believes there have been “subtle shifts” in China’s attitude to North Korea which cannot have been “lost” on Pyongyang. 刚刚卸任的美国东亚及太平洋事务助理国务卿科特?坎贝尔(Kurt Campbell)认为，中国对朝鲜的态度有“微妙转变”，对此朝鲜不应视若无睹。 “You have seen it at the United Nations. We have seen it in our private discussions and you see it in statements in Beijing,” he said. “The most important new ingredient has been a recognition in China that their previous approach to North Korea is not bearing fruit.”

坎贝尔指出：“这一点在联合国(UN)已经有目共睹。我们在私下的谈话中看到了，大家从北京方面发表的声明中也看到了。最重要的一点变化是，中国人承认，他们之前对朝鲜的政策没有产生效果。”

More broadly, Mr Kerry’s trip will be closely watched for any hints he gives about his views on the Obama administration’s “pivot” to Asia. At his confirmation hearing in January, he appeared to join the critics who believe the administration has placed too much emphasis on beefing up its military presence in the region, which was bound to alienate China.

以更广的视角来看，克里此行将是一扇窗户，人们将透过此行、仔细寻找他对奥巴马政府“重返亚洲”战略看法的蛛丝马迹。在1月份的国务卿提名人审议听证会(confirmation hearing)上，克里似乎站在了这一战略的批评者一边。批评者认为，奥巴马政府过于重视加强在亚洲的军事力量，这必将导致中国的疏远。

“We have a lot more forces there than any other nation in the world, including China,” he said. “And the Chinese take a look at that and say: ‘What’s the US doing? Are they trying to circle us?’ I think we need to be thoughtful in how we go forward.”

克里当时说：“我们在亚洲部署的军力，已远远超过世界任何其他国家，包括中国。而中国人环顾四周之后会说，‘美国在干什么?想包围我们吗?’我认为我们必须三思而后行。”

However, as a result of the latest North Korea crisis, the US has sent even more assets to the region, including missile defence batteries to Guam which could also reduce the potential threat of China’s own missile force.

然而，朝鲜危机的最新动向，促使美国向亚洲部署了比以往更多的人力和物力，包括在关岛部署反导系统。该系统还可能降低中国自己的导弹部队的潜在威胁。

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